A great deal of media attention this cycle has been focused on whether the women’s vote could make or break the presidential race. Not so noticed? The role the LGBT community might have in picking the final winner, too.
A poll conducted by LOGO Television Network shows that while the race remains tight, gay voters could swing the final results.
In the days following the last of the presidential debates, President Obama’s 44-point lead among LGBT voters in August expanded to 52 points.
* While Mitt Romney actually overcame a 5-point deficit to +2 statistical tie among general population voters, his 52-point deficit among LGBT voters is more reminiscent of what exit polls looked like among gay voters in the Democratic year of 2008 (2008 exit poll of gay voters: +62 for Obama) than in the Republican year of 2010 (2010 exit poll of gay voters: +38 Republican candidates for the House of Representatives nationally).
* The movement toward Obama is mostly a shift of LGBT voters who were unsure on the initial vote in August (9%) who have now moved to Obama.
* If Election Day is as narrow as many are predicting, Romney’s inability to turn these unsure LGBT voters to his candidacy could mean the difference between victory and defeat.
The LGBT community is more likely to be active in this election than in 2008 due to an increase in state ballot initiatives that have proposed either expanding marriage rights to enshrining the “traditional marriage” definition in state constitutions, as well as a plethora of Catholic leaders urging their parishoners to vote for candidates who say they will reinforce the church’s view on abortion, gay marriage and “religious freedom.”