Recent polling conducted by North Dakota’s largest newspaper shows a senate race with one candidate sporting a potentially insurmountable lead. North Dakota Congressman Rick Berg and former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp are vying to fill the state’s open senate seat, and Berg is showing a 10-point advantage at this point in the campaign, according to the Fargo Forum. In a poll conducted beginning October 12th, Berg was found to lead Heitkamp 50 points to 40 points, leaving Heitkamp with a large deficit to make up.
Those numbers don’t match what Heitkamp’s campaign is seeing internally, however. According to the campaign, their own polling shows the Democrat leading Berg by three points, 45 to 42, although that is still within the margin of error. The campaign says that their polling, as well as other more recent polls, show a race that is likely too close to call.
So which poll is right? Maybe none. Rasmussen, too, has its own set of numbers, and those are running somewhere in between. According to their survey of likely voters, Berg is leading Heitkamp 45 percent to 40. The questioning period, which was conducted a few days after the Forum survey, could have caught a shift in the mood of voters. Or, it could mean nothing at all.
In the end, the only numbers that really matter is who shows up on election day.