In response to the recognized strength of Kansas gubernatorial candidate Democratic State Senator Tom Holland, CQ Politics (Congressional Quarterly) has
moved its rating of ultra-conservative U.S. Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS), the leading contender to date, from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. 

Holland made his candidacy official on Wednesday.

"Holland
would seem to have his work cut out for him," writes Bob Benenson, CQ-Roll Call Senior Elections Analyst.  He is "running in one of the
nation’s most Republican-leaning states, in an election year when the
national political environment appears to be benefiting the GOP."

Yet while Brownback
maintains a strong edge in the race, "Holland has a history of tilting at partisan windmills — and winning," states Benenson.

An
information technology consultant, he defeated Republican incumbents in
his first election to the state House in 2002 and in his successful run
for the state Senate in 2008.

Burdett
A. “Bird” Loomis, a political science professor at University of
Kansas, described Holland as a serious candidate who could raise decent
money.

And if he does, notes Benenson, "he could give Brownback his first
serious test at the polls since he went to the Senate in a 1996 special
election."

Loomis told CQ Politics that
some voters, even in conservative-leaning Kansas, are not comfortable
with Brownback’s outspoken conservatism on social issues such as
abortion — highlighted in a very brief and unavailing bid for the 2008
Republican presidential nomination — and his public discussion of his
journey from a Methodist upbringing to a conversion to Roman
Catholicism.

“Holland’s not especially charismatic, but if
the press pays attention to him, [he] could make life a little
miserable for Brownback, who does have a long and often vulnerable
record, whether on social conservative policies or manifestations of
his own religiosity,” Loomis said.

Other state political analysts agree with CQ’s assessment.  A round up of Kansas opinion pages in the Wichita Eagle this morning provides this snippet from the Lawrence Journal-World:

Congratulations to Kansas Sen. Tom Holland of Baldwin City for taking
on the challenge of seeking the Democratic nomination for governor.
Holland is not the only Democrat who has announced a run for governor,
but as a current state senator, he’s a clear notch above the other
contenders. GOP candidate Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., has a big head
start, especially in fundraising, but it would be a mistake to overlook
a candidate like Holland who knocked out incumbent Republican
legislators to claim a seat in the Kansas House and then the Senate